What to use instead of saffron
It depends entirely on what it's doing in the dish. Here's the job, what else does it, and what to skip.
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Yellow-orange colour through a rice or a broth
Crocin is water-soluble and stains everything it touches, which is how a dozen threads turn an entire pan of paella gold.
Ground turmeric, for colour onlyRan out
1/4 tsp per generous pinch (about 20 threads) of saffron
The colour lands mustard-yellow rather than orange, and it brings a distinct earthy bitterness saffron does not have. Passes in a biryani, obvious in a bouillabaisse.
Safflower petals, sold as azafran or bastard saffronRan out
1 tsp petals per generous pinch of saffron
Colours almost identically and tastes of virtually nothing, which is both its value and its limit.
Annatto seeds bloomed in oil and strained outRan out
1/2 tsp seeds warmed in 2 tbsp oil per pinch of saffron
Deep orange and mildly peppery. It colours the fat rather than the water, so it distributes through a fried base instead of through the broth.
Sweet paprika plus a little turmericRan out
1/4 tsp paprika + 1/8 tsp turmeric per pinch of saffron
Warmer orange than turmeric alone. Both of them taste of something, so keep the quantity small or the rice tastes of paprika.
What doesn't work: Yellow food colouring in a paella. It gets the colour exactly right, which only makes the missing flavour more obvious; the eye now expects saffron and the mouth finds none.
The aroma and bitter-honey flavour the dish is built around
Safranal is the hay-and-honey smell and picrocrocin the bitterness underneath it. Both come only from crocus stigmas, and no other plant makes either compound.
Fewer threads, properly bloomedRan out
grind 10 to 15 threads with a pinch of sugar or salt, steep 20 minutes in 2 tbsp warm water, then add the liquid and the grounds
You get most of a full pinch of flavour out of half the threads. Threads dropped in dry give up perhaps a third of what you paid for.
Saffron powderRan out
a scant 1/8 tsp per generous pinch of threads
Dissolves instantly and colours evenly. Powder is also where adulteration hides, so buy threads if the choice is yours.
What doesn't work: Turmeric as the flavour. It colours the rice and then tastes earthy and slightly mustardy underneath, so a paella made with it reads as a mild curry. There is no substitute for the smell of saffron, and pretending otherwise is how a tahdig gets ruined.
Bloom saffron in warm liquid rather than boiling. Above a simmer the aroma leaves with the steam.